Weekly Model Performance Report

Previous Week

Week of January 05, 2026 - January 11, 2026

Generated: 2026-01-15 01:35:40 UTC

Total Games: 676

This report shows the model's record against the opening lines for spreads, totals, and moneylines for the specified week.

1. Model Spread Performance by Edge (All Games) (100 games)

Edge Tier

Record

Win %

0-0.9% 12-21 36.4%

Date	Matchup	Team	Opening Spread	Edge	Closing	Result
2026-01-06	Ohio Bobcats @ Massachusetts Minutemen	Massachusetts Minutemen	2.5	0.9%	3.5	Loss
2026-01-07	LSU Tigers @ South Carolina Gamecocks	LSU Tigers	-8.5	0.9%	18.5	Loss
2026-01-07	Oklahoma St Cowboys @ UCF Knights	UCF Knights	2.5	0.9%	5.5	Loss
2026-01-07	DePaul Blue Demons @ Georgetown Hoyas	DePaul Blue Demons	-2.0	0.3%	1.5	Win
2026-01-07	Winthrop Eagles @ Charleston Southern Buccaneers	Charleston Southern Buccaneers	6.75	0.1%	6.5	Win
2026-01-08	North Texas Mean Green @ South Florida Bulls	North Texas Mean Green	5.0	0.8%	5.5	Win
2026-01-08	Bradley Braves @ Drake Bulldogs	Drake Bulldogs	7.0	0.9%	12.5	Loss
2026-01-08	Virginia Cavaliers @ California Golden Bears	California Golden Bears	12.5	0.9%	13.5	Loss
2026-01-09	Campbell Fighting Camels @ Hampton Pirates	Hampton Pirates	7.5	0.2%	13.5	Loss
2026-01-09	Southern Miss Golden Eagles @ Texas State Bobcats	Southern Miss Golden Eagles	-5.0	0.2%	-2.5	Win
2026-01-09	Illinois Fighting Illini @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights	Illinois Fighting Illini	-21.5	0.3%	-27.5	Win
2026-01-09	Oregon St Beavers @ Seattle Redhawks	Seattle Redhawks	12.5	0.9%	12.5	Loss
2026-01-10	Colorado St Rams @ UNLV Rebels	Colorado St Rams	1.5	0.2%	1.5	Win
2026-01-10	Louisville Cardinals @ Boston College Eagles	Louisville Cardinals	-20.5	1.0%	-22.0	Loss
2026-01-10	Coastal Carolina Chanticleers @ Appalachian St Mountaineers	Appalachian St Mountaineers	1.0	1.0%	1.0	Loss
2026-01-10	Wagner Seahawks @ Mercyhurst Lakers	Wagner Seahawks	-0.0	0.4%	-1.0	Loss
2026-01-10	Le Moyne Dolphins @ Central Connecticut St Blue Devils	Le Moyne Dolphins	-1.5	0.2%	-1.5	Loss
2026-01-10	Purdue Boilermakers @ Penn State Nittany Lions	Purdue Boilermakers	-23.5	0.4%	-21.5	Loss
2026-01-10	Princeton Tigers @ Yale Bulldogs	Princeton Tigers	10.0	0.9%	8.5	Win
2026-01-10	Pittsburgh Panthers @ Syracuse Orange	Pittsburgh Panthers	1.5	0.9%	-1.5	Loss
2026-01-10	Mercer Bears @ Wofford Terriers	Mercer Bears	-6.0	0.9%	-5.0	Win
2026-01-10	Marquette Golden Eagles @ Villanova Wildcats	Villanova Wildcats	-5.5	1.0%	-4.5	Loss
2026-01-10	UL Monroe Warhawks @ Southern Miss Golden Eagles	Southern Miss Golden Eagles	-7.5	0.8%	-11.5	Win
2026-01-10	La Salle Explorers @ Saint Louis Billikens	La Salle Explorers	15.0	0.3%	15.5	Win
2026-01-10	Coppin St Eagles @ North Carolina Central Eagles	Coppin St Eagles	6.0	0.9%	6.0	Loss
2026-01-10	Prairie View Panthers @ Miss Valley St Delta Devils	Prairie View Panthers	-18.0	0.9%	-18.0	Loss
2026-01-10	Drake Bulldogs @ Belmont Bruins	Belmont Bruins	-6.0	0.9%	-6.0	Loss
2026-01-11	Lamar Cardinals @ Incarnate Word Cardinals	Incarnate Word Cardinals	N/A	0.9%	8.5	Loss
2026-01-11	UMKC Kangaroos @ North Dakota Fighting Hawks	North Dakota Fighting Hawks	2.0	0.9%	3.5	Win
2026-01-11	Richmond Spiders @ Saint Joseph's Hawks	Richmond Spiders	-8.5	0.4%	-8.5	Loss
2026-01-11	Manhattan Jaspers @ Niagara Purple Eagles	Manhattan Jaspers	-6.5	1.0%	-7.0	Win
2026-01-11	Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ Northwestern Wildcats	Northwestern Wildcats	-4.25	0.2%	-4.5	Loss
2026-01-11	UCF Knights @ Cincinnati Bearcats	UCF Knights	-3.5	0.6%	-3.0	Loss

1-1.9% 20-21 48.8%

Date	Matchup	Team	Opening Spread	Edge	Closing	Result
2026-01-05	Santa Clara Broncos @ San Diego Toreros	Santa Clara Broncos	-14.0	1.3%	-20.5	Win
2026-01-05	Gonzaga Bulldogs @ Loyola Marymount Lions	Loyola Marymount Lions	24.0	1.3%	18.5	Loss
2026-01-05	Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions @ Alabama St Hornets	Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions	3.0	1.7%	1.5	Win
2026-01-06	Green Bay Phoenix @ Milwaukee Panthers	Green Bay Phoenix	1.5	1.3%	-5.0	Win
2026-01-06	Charleston Cougars @ William & Mary Tribe	William & Mary Tribe	1.0	1.3%	7.5	Loss
2026-01-06	McNeese Cowboys @ Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks	Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks	10.0	1.4%	7.5	Win
2026-01-07	Butler Bulldogs @ St. John's Red Storm	Butler Bulldogs	4.5	1.3%	1.5	Loss
2026-01-07	Northern Illinois Huskies @ Toledo Rockets	Northern Illinois Huskies	6.5	1.3%	14.0	Loss
2026-01-07	Boston College Eagles @ NC State Wolfpack	Boston College Eagles	12.0	1.4%	14.5	Win
2026-01-07	Kansas Jayhawks @ TCU Horned Frogs	Kansas Jayhawks	-3.5	1.1%	-3.5	Loss
2026-01-07	Wyoming Cowboys @ UNLV Rebels	Wyoming Cowboys	-26.5	1.3%	-26.5	Win
2026-01-08	East Tennessee St Buccaneers @ VMI Keydets	East Tennessee St Buccaneers	-16.5	1.3%	-15.5	Loss
2026-01-08	Marquette Golden Eagles @ Xavier Musketeers	Xavier Musketeers	4.5	1.3%	7.5	Win
2026-01-08	Mercer Bears @ The Citadel Bulldogs	Mercer Bears	-16.5	1.3%	-23.0	Win
2026-01-08	Jacksonville St Gamecocks @ Florida Int'l Golden Panthers	Florida Int'l Golden Panthers	1.0	1.3%	5.5	Loss
2026-01-08	St. Bonaventure Bonnies @ Richmond Spiders	Richmond Spiders	6.25	1.3%	2.0	Win
2026-01-08	Youngstown St Penguins @ Fort Wayne Mastodons	Youngstown St Penguins	-5.5	1.3%	-3.0	Loss
2026-01-08	Clemson Tigers @ SMU Mustangs	SMU Mustangs	5.0	1.9%	7.5	Win
2026-01-09	Drexel Dragons @ Stony Brook Seawolves	Stony Brook Seawolves	4.0	1.5%	7.0	Loss
2026-01-09	Louisiana Tech Bulldogs @ Liberty Flames	Louisiana Tech Bulldogs	5.5	1.5%	6.5	Loss
2026-01-09	North Florida Ospreys @ West Georgia Wolves	North Florida Ospreys	3.0	1.3%	8.5	Loss
2026-01-09	New Mexico St Aggies @ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers	New Mexico St Aggies	-3.0	1.3%	-13.5	Win
2026-01-09	UC San Diego Tritons @ CSU Fullerton Titans	UC San Diego Tritons	-13.0	1.3%	-14.5	Loss
2026-01-09	Oregon Ducks @ Ohio State Buckeyes	Ohio State Buckeyes	-12.5	1.3%	-12.5	Win
2026-01-09	Toledo Rockets @ Miami (OH) RedHawks	Miami (OH) RedHawks	-1.0	1.3%	-1.5	Win
2026-01-10	Oakland Golden Grizzlies @ Cleveland St Vikings	Oakland Golden Grizzlies	-15.5	1.7%	-14.5	Win
2026-01-10	Green Bay Phoenix @ IUPUI Jaguars	Green Bay Phoenix	-7.5	1.3%	-9.5	Win
2026-01-10	Siena Saints @ Merrimack Warriors	Siena Saints	-5.5	1.5%	8.5	Loss
2026-01-10	Bowling Green Falcons @ Akron Zips	Bowling Green Falcons	3.5	1.3%	13.5	Loss
2026-01-10	Columbia Lions @ Harvard Crimson	Columbia Lions	-6.0	1.3%	-7.5	Loss
2026-01-10	Albany Great Danes @ Bryant Bulldogs	Albany Great Danes	-1.0	1.4%	-1.5	Win
2026-01-10	NJIT Highlanders @ Maine Black Bears	NJIT Highlanders	-1.0	1.5%	-1.5	Loss
2026-01-10	Jacksonville Dolphins @ West Georgia Wolves	West Georgia Wolves	1.0	1.4%	1.5	Loss
2026-01-10	UT-Arlington Mavericks @ Abilene Christian Wildcats	UT-Arlington Mavericks	-3.5	1.5%	-3.0	Win
2026-01-10	Sam Houston St Bearkats @ Liberty Flames	Sam Houston St Bearkats	1.5	1.3%	1.5	Loss
2026-01-10	Massachusetts Minutemen @ Ball State Cardinals	Massachusetts Minutemen	-11.0	1.3%	-11.0	Loss
2026-01-10	LIU Sharks @ St. Francis (PA) Red Flash	LIU Sharks	-16.0	1.3%	-16.0	Loss
2026-01-10	Florida Gulf Coast Eagles @ Lipscomb Bisons	Florida Gulf Coast Eagles	-0.0	1.3%	-1.0	Loss
2026-01-10	Stony Brook Seawolves @ UNC Wilmington Seahawks	Stony Brook Seawolves	8.5	1.5%	8.5	Win
2026-01-11	Santa Clara Broncos @ Loyola Marymount Lions	Santa Clara Broncos	-10.0	1.3%	-19.0	Win
2026-01-11	Sacred Heart Pioneers @ Quinnipiac Bobcats	Quinnipiac Bobcats	-5.5	1.1%	-5.0	Win

2-2.9% 5-7 41.7%

Date	Matchup	Team	Opening Spread	Edge	Closing	Result
2026-01-08	High Point Panthers @ Gardner-Webb Bulldogs	High Point Panthers	-27.0	2.9%	-43.5	Win
2026-01-08	Temple Owls @ East Carolina Pirates	Temple Owls	-9.5	2.5%	-13.5	Loss
2026-01-08	Evansville Purple Aces @ Murray St Racers	Murray St Racers	-7.0	2.9%	-14.5	Win
2026-01-09	Morehead St Eagles @ Tenn-Martin Skyhawks	Morehead St Eagles	3.0	2.7%	-8.5	Loss
2026-01-09	Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles @ SE Missouri St Redhawks	Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles	7.0	2.5%	8.5	Loss
2026-01-10	South Carolina Upstate Spartans @ Winthrop Eagles	South Carolina Upstate Spartans	5.5	2.9%	5.5	Loss
2026-01-10	Davidson Wildcats @ Rhode Island Rams	Davidson Wildcats	-3.0	2.7%	-3.5	Loss
2026-01-10	Morehead St Eagles @ SE Missouri St Redhawks	Morehead St Eagles	4.0	2.5%	4.5	Win
2026-01-10	Eastern Kentucky Colonels @ Central Arkansas Bears	Central Arkansas Bears	1.5	2.9%	1.5	Loss
2026-01-10	Lindenwood Lions @ Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans	Lindenwood Lions	-5.5	2.9%	-6.0	Loss
2026-01-10	Cal Poly Mustangs @ UC Davis Aggies	Cal Poly Mustangs	3.5	2.5%	2.0	Win
2026-01-10	Eastern Washington Eagles @ Montana Grizzlies	Montana Grizzlies	1.5	2.5%	0.0	Win

3-3.9% 2-6 25.0%

Date	Matchup	Team	Opening Spread	Edge	Closing	Result
2026-01-07	Akron Zips @ Central Michigan Chippewas	Akron Zips	-23.5	3.3%	-22.0	Loss
2026-01-08	Lafayette Leopards @ Boston Univ. Terriers	Lafayette Leopards	N/A	3.1%	7.0	Loss
2026-01-08	Loyola (Chi) Ramblers @ Davidson Wildcats	Davidson Wildcats	-1.5	3.3%	-8.5	Win
2026-01-08	Towson Tigers @ Hofstra Pride	Hofstra Pride	1.0	3.3%	1.5	Win
2026-01-09	Wagner Seahawks @ St. Francis (PA) Red Flash	Wagner Seahawks	-8.5	3.1%	-1.5	Loss
2026-01-10	Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns @ Troy Trojans	Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns	11.0	3.3%	10.0	Loss
2026-01-10	Northeastern Huskies @ Towson Tigers	Northeastern Huskies	1.0	3.1%	2.0	Loss
2026-01-10	Bradley Braves @ Northern Iowa Panthers	Northern Iowa Panthers	4.0	3.3%	3.5	Loss

4%+ 2-4 33.3%

Date	Matchup	Team	Opening Spread	Edge	Closing	Result
2026-01-07	Miami (OH) RedHawks @ Western Michigan Broncos	Miami (OH) RedHawks	-13.0	7.6%	-14.5	Loss
2026-01-09	Utah Valley Wolverines @ Southern Utah Thunderbirds	Utah Valley Wolverines	-20.5	4.5%	-15.5	Loss
2026-01-09	Eastern Illinois Panthers @ Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles	Eastern Illinois Panthers	N/A	5.1%	5.5	Win
2026-01-10	Iona Gaels @ Niagara Purple Eagles	Iona Gaels	-13.0	4.3%	-21.5	Win
2026-01-10	Michigan Wolverines @ Wisconsin Badgers	Michigan Wolverines	-17.5	5.6%	-19.5	Loss
2026-01-11	Kentucky Wildcats @ Mississippi St Bulldogs	Mississippi St Bulldogs	12.5	5.2%	9.5	Loss

2. Model Spread Performance by Edge (Consensus Only) (26 games)

Edge Tier

Record

Win %

0-0.9% 2-10 16.7%

Date	Matchup	Team	Opening Spread	Edge	Closing	Result
2026-01-06	Ohio Bobcats @ Massachusetts Minutemen	Massachusetts Minutemen	2.5	0.9%	3.5	Loss
2026-01-10	Louisville Cardinals @ Boston College Eagles	Louisville Cardinals	-20.5	1.0%	-22.0	Loss
2026-01-10	Coastal Carolina Chanticleers @ Appalachian St Mountaineers	Appalachian St Mountaineers	1.0	1.0%	1.0	Loss
2026-01-10	Purdue Boilermakers @ Penn State Nittany Lions	Purdue Boilermakers	-23.5	0.4%	-21.5	Loss
2026-01-10	Princeton Tigers @ Yale Bulldogs	Princeton Tigers	10.0	0.9%	8.5	Win
2026-01-10	Pittsburgh Panthers @ Syracuse Orange	Pittsburgh Panthers	1.5	0.9%	-1.5	Loss
2026-01-10	Coppin St Eagles @ North Carolina Central Eagles	Coppin St Eagles	6.0	0.9%	6.0	Loss
2026-01-10	Prairie View Panthers @ Miss Valley St Delta Devils	Prairie View Panthers	-18.0	0.9%	-18.0	Loss
2026-01-11	Richmond Spiders @ Saint Joseph's Hawks	Richmond Spiders	-8.5	0.4%	-8.5	Loss
2026-01-11	Manhattan Jaspers @ Niagara Purple Eagles	Manhattan Jaspers	-6.5	1.0%	-7.0	Win
2026-01-11	Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ Northwestern Wildcats	Northwestern Wildcats	-4.25	0.2%	-4.5	Loss
2026-01-11	UCF Knights @ Cincinnati Bearcats	UCF Knights	-3.5	0.6%	-3.0	Loss

1-1.9% 3-3 50.0%

Date	Matchup	Team	Opening Spread	Edge	Closing	Result
2026-01-09	Toledo Rockets @ Miami (OH) RedHawks	Miami (OH) RedHawks	-1.0	1.3%	-1.5	Win
2026-01-10	Columbia Lions @ Harvard Crimson	Columbia Lions	-6.0	1.3%	-7.5	Loss
2026-01-10	Albany Great Danes @ Bryant Bulldogs	Albany Great Danes	-1.0	1.4%	-1.5	Win
2026-01-10	Jacksonville Dolphins @ West Georgia Wolves	West Georgia Wolves	1.0	1.4%	1.5	Loss
2026-01-10	Massachusetts Minutemen @ Ball State Cardinals	Massachusetts Minutemen	-11.0	1.3%	-11.0	Loss
2026-01-10	Stony Brook Seawolves @ UNC Wilmington Seahawks	Stony Brook Seawolves	8.5	1.5%	8.5	Win

2-2.9% 3-3 50.0%

Date	Matchup	Team	Opening Spread	Edge	Closing	Result
2026-01-10	South Carolina Upstate Spartans @ Winthrop Eagles	South Carolina Upstate Spartans	5.5	2.9%	5.5	Loss
2026-01-10	Davidson Wildcats @ Rhode Island Rams	Davidson Wildcats	-3.0	2.7%	-3.5	Loss
2026-01-10	Morehead St Eagles @ SE Missouri St Redhawks	Morehead St Eagles	4.0	2.5%	4.5	Win
2026-01-10	Lindenwood Lions @ Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans	Lindenwood Lions	-5.5	2.9%	-6.0	Loss
2026-01-10	Cal Poly Mustangs @ UC Davis Aggies	Cal Poly Mustangs	3.5	2.5%	2.0	Win
2026-01-10	Eastern Washington Eagles @ Montana Grizzlies	Montana Grizzlies	1.5	2.5%	0.0	Win

3-3.9% 0-2 0.0%

Date	Matchup	Team	Opening Spread	Edge	Closing	Result
2026-01-10	Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns @ Troy Trojans	Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns	11.0	3.3%	10.0	Loss
2026-01-10	Bradley Braves @ Northern Iowa Panthers	Northern Iowa Panthers	4.0	3.3%	3.5	Loss

4%+ 0-0 0.0%

No games in this tier.

3. Model Spread Performance by Point Spread Ranges (59 games)

Favorites (opening_spread < 0)

Point Spread Range

Record

Win %

0-4.5 1-5 16.7%

Date	Matchup	Team	Opening Spread	Edge	Closing	Result
2026-01-07	DePaul Blue Demons @ Georgetown Hoyas	DePaul Blue Demons	-2.0	0.3%	1.5	Win
2026-01-07	Kansas Jayhawks @ TCU Horned Frogs	Kansas Jayhawks	-3.5	1.1%	-3.5	Loss
2026-01-10	Le Moyne Dolphins @ Central Connecticut St Blue Devils	Le Moyne Dolphins	-1.5	0.2%	-1.5	Loss
2026-01-10	NJIT Highlanders @ Maine Black Bears	NJIT Highlanders	-1.0	1.5%	-1.5	Loss
2026-01-10	Davidson Wildcats @ Rhode Island Rams	Davidson Wildcats	-3.0	2.7%	-3.5	Loss
2026-01-11	UCF Knights @ Cincinnati Bearcats	UCF Knights	-3.5	0.6%	-3.0	Loss

5-9.5 3-9 25.0%

Date	Matchup	Team	Opening Spread	Edge	Closing	Result
2026-01-07	LSU Tigers @ South Carolina Gamecocks	LSU Tigers	-8.5	0.9%	18.5	Loss
2026-01-08	Youngstown St Penguins @ Fort Wayne Mastodons	Youngstown St Penguins	-5.5	1.3%	-3.0	Loss
2026-01-09	Wagner Seahawks @ St. Francis (PA) Red Flash	Wagner Seahawks	-8.5	3.1%	-1.5	Loss
2026-01-09	Southern Miss Golden Eagles @ Texas State Bobcats	Southern Miss Golden Eagles	-5.0	0.2%	-2.5	Win
2026-01-10	Siena Saints @ Merrimack Warriors	Siena Saints	-5.5	1.5%	8.5	Loss
2026-01-10	Columbia Lions @ Harvard Crimson	Columbia Lions	-6.0	1.3%	-7.5	Loss
2026-01-10	Marquette Golden Eagles @ Villanova Wildcats	Villanova Wildcats	-5.5	1.0%	-4.5	Loss
2026-01-10	Lindenwood Lions @ Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans	Lindenwood Lions	-5.5	2.9%	-6.0	Loss
2026-01-10	Drake Bulldogs @ Belmont Bruins	Belmont Bruins	-6.0	0.9%	-6.0	Loss
2026-01-11	Richmond Spiders @ Saint Joseph's Hawks	Richmond Spiders	-8.5	0.4%	-8.5	Loss
2026-01-11	Manhattan Jaspers @ Niagara Purple Eagles	Manhattan Jaspers	-6.5	1.0%	-7.0	Win
2026-01-11	Sacred Heart Pioneers @ Quinnipiac Bobcats	Quinnipiac Bobcats	-5.5	1.1%	-5.0	Win

10-14.5 0-2 0.0%

Date	Matchup	Team	Opening Spread	Edge	Closing	Result
2026-01-07	Miami (OH) RedHawks @ Western Michigan Broncos	Miami (OH) RedHawks	-13.0	7.6%	-14.5	Loss
2026-01-10	Massachusetts Minutemen @ Ball State Cardinals	Massachusetts Minutemen	-11.0	1.3%	-11.0	Loss

15-19.5 1-3 25.0%

Date	Matchup	Team	Opening Spread	Edge	Closing	Result
2026-01-08	East Tennessee St Buccaneers @ VMI Keydets	East Tennessee St Buccaneers	-16.5	1.3%	-15.5	Loss
2026-01-10	Oakland Golden Grizzlies @ Cleveland St Vikings	Oakland Golden Grizzlies	-15.5	1.7%	-14.5	Win
2026-01-10	LIU Sharks @ St. Francis (PA) Red Flash	LIU Sharks	-16.0	1.3%	-16.0	Loss
2026-01-10	Prairie View Panthers @ Miss Valley St Delta Devils	Prairie View Panthers	-18.0	0.9%	-18.0	Loss

20-24.5 0-4 0.0%

Date	Matchup	Team	Opening Spread	Edge	Closing	Result
2026-01-07	Akron Zips @ Central Michigan Chippewas	Akron Zips	-23.5	3.3%	-22.0	Loss
2026-01-09	Utah Valley Wolverines @ Southern Utah Thunderbirds	Utah Valley Wolverines	-20.5	4.5%	-15.5	Loss
2026-01-10	Louisville Cardinals @ Boston College Eagles	Louisville Cardinals	-20.5	1.0%	-22.0	Loss
2026-01-10	Purdue Boilermakers @ Penn State Nittany Lions	Purdue Boilermakers	-23.5	0.4%	-21.5	Loss

25-29.5 0-0 0.0%

No games in this tier.

30+ 0-0 0.0%

No games in this tier.

Underdogs (opening_spread > 0)

Point Spread Range

Record

Win %

0-4.5 7-11 38.9%

Date	Matchup	Team	Opening Spread	Edge	Closing	Result
2026-01-06	Charleston Cougars @ William & Mary Tribe	William & Mary Tribe	1.0	1.3%	7.5	Loss
2026-01-06	Ohio Bobcats @ Massachusetts Minutemen	Massachusetts Minutemen	2.5	0.9%	3.5	Loss
2026-01-07	Oklahoma St Cowboys @ UCF Knights	UCF Knights	2.5	0.9%	5.5	Loss
2026-01-08	Marquette Golden Eagles @ Xavier Musketeers	Xavier Musketeers	4.5	1.3%	7.5	Win
2026-01-08	Jacksonville St Gamecocks @ Florida Int'l Golden Panthers	Florida Int'l Golden Panthers	1.0	1.3%	5.5	Loss
2026-01-08	Towson Tigers @ Hofstra Pride	Hofstra Pride	1.0	3.3%	1.5	Win
2026-01-09	Drexel Dragons @ Stony Brook Seawolves	Stony Brook Seawolves	4.0	1.5%	7.0	Loss
2026-01-09	North Florida Ospreys @ West Georgia Wolves	North Florida Ospreys	3.0	1.3%	8.5	Loss
2026-01-10	Bowling Green Falcons @ Akron Zips	Bowling Green Falcons	3.5	1.3%	13.5	Loss
2026-01-10	Colorado St Rams @ UNLV Rebels	Colorado St Rams	1.5	0.2%	1.5	Win
2026-01-10	Northeastern Huskies @ Towson Tigers	Northeastern Huskies	1.0	3.1%	2.0	Loss
2026-01-10	Pittsburgh Panthers @ Syracuse Orange	Pittsburgh Panthers	1.5	0.9%	-1.5	Loss
2026-01-10	Jacksonville Dolphins @ West Georgia Wolves	West Georgia Wolves	1.0	1.4%	1.5	Loss
2026-01-10	Morehead St Eagles @ SE Missouri St Redhawks	Morehead St Eagles	4.0	2.5%	4.5	Win
2026-01-10	Cal Poly Mustangs @ UC Davis Aggies	Cal Poly Mustangs	3.5	2.5%	2.0	Win
2026-01-10	Eastern Washington Eagles @ Montana Grizzlies	Montana Grizzlies	1.5	2.5%	0.0	Win
2026-01-10	Bradley Braves @ Northern Iowa Panthers	Northern Iowa Panthers	4.0	3.3%	3.5	Loss
2026-01-11	UMKC Kangaroos @ North Dakota Fighting Hawks	North Dakota Fighting Hawks	2.0	0.9%	3.5	Win

5-9.5 2-6 25.0%

Date	Matchup	Team	Opening Spread	Edge	Closing	Result
2026-01-07	Northern Illinois Huskies @ Toledo Rockets	Northern Illinois Huskies	6.5	1.3%	14.0	Loss
2026-01-08	North Texas Mean Green @ South Florida Bulls	North Texas Mean Green	5.0	0.8%	5.5	Win
2026-01-08	Bradley Braves @ Drake Bulldogs	Drake Bulldogs	7.0	0.9%	12.5	Loss
2026-01-08	Clemson Tigers @ SMU Mustangs	SMU Mustangs	5.0	1.9%	7.5	Win
2026-01-09	Louisiana Tech Bulldogs @ Liberty Flames	Louisiana Tech Bulldogs	5.5	1.5%	6.5	Loss
2026-01-09	Campbell Fighting Camels @ Hampton Pirates	Hampton Pirates	7.5	0.2%	13.5	Loss
2026-01-09	Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles @ SE Missouri St Redhawks	Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles	7.0	2.5%	8.5	Loss
2026-01-10	South Carolina Upstate Spartans @ Winthrop Eagles	South Carolina Upstate Spartans	5.5	2.9%	5.5	Loss

10-14.5 1-3 25.0%

Date	Matchup	Team	Opening Spread	Edge	Closing	Result
2026-01-07	Boston College Eagles @ NC State Wolfpack	Boston College Eagles	12.0	1.4%	14.5	Win
2026-01-08	Virginia Cavaliers @ California Golden Bears	California Golden Bears	12.5	0.9%	13.5	Loss
2026-01-10	Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns @ Troy Trojans	Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns	11.0	3.3%	10.0	Loss
2026-01-11	Kentucky Wildcats @ Mississippi St Bulldogs	Mississippi St Bulldogs	12.5	5.2%	9.5	Loss

15-19.5 1-0 100.0%

Date	Matchup	Team	Opening Spread	Edge	Closing	Result
2026-01-10	La Salle Explorers @ Saint Louis Billikens	La Salle Explorers	15.0	0.3%	15.5	Win

20-24.5 0-0 0.0%

No games in this tier.

25-29.5 0-0 0.0%

No games in this tier.

30+ 0-0 0.0%

No games in this tier.

4. Model Over/Under Performance by Edge (All Games) (38 games)

Overs Performance

Edge Tier

Record

Win %

0-0.9% 8-5 61.5%

Date	Matchup	Team	Opening Total	Edge	Closing	Result
2026-01-08	Lafayette Leopards @ Boston Univ. Terriers	N/A	145.0	0.2%	N/A	Win
2026-01-08	Virginia Tech Hokies @ Stanford Cardinal	N/A	145.5	0.6%	N/A	Win
2026-01-08	Baylor Bears @ Iowa State Cyclones	N/A	158.5	0.2%	N/A	Win
2026-01-09	Vermont Catamounts @ Binghamton Bearcats	N/A	145.5	0.1%	N/A	Loss
2026-01-09	Tarleton State Texans @ Abilene Christian Wildcats	N/A	140.0	0.6%	N/A	Win
2026-01-10	Texas A&M Aggies @ Oklahoma Sooners	N/A	162.5	0.3%	165.5	Loss
2026-01-10	LIU Sharks @ St. Francis (PA) Red Flash	N/A	149.0	0.5%	148.75	Loss
2026-01-10	American Eagles @ Holy Cross Crusaders	N/A	136.5	0.6%	136.5	Win
2026-01-10	Saint Mary's Gaels @ Washington St Cougars	N/A	141.5	0.1%	140.25	Win
2026-01-10	Alabama A&M Bulldogs @ Alcorn St Braves	N/A	143.5	0.1%	140.5	Loss
2026-01-11	Elon Phoenix @ Campbell Fighting Camels	N/A	161.0	0.6%	N/A	Win
2026-01-11	UC Riverside Highlanders @ UC San Diego Tritons	N/A	150.5	0.6%	N/A	Loss
2026-01-11	Milwaukee Panthers @ IUPUI Jaguars	N/A	164.5	0.3%	166.5	Win

1-1.9% 1-1 50.0%

Date	Matchup	Team	Opening Total	Edge	Closing	Result
2026-01-10	Boston Univ. Terriers @ Army Knights	N/A	140.0	1.0%	141.5	Win
2026-01-10	Binghamton Bearcats @ UMass Lowell River Hawks	N/A	147.0	1.4%	148.0	Loss

2-2.9% 0-1 0.0%

Date	Matchup	Team	Opening Total	Edge	Closing	Result
2026-01-09	North Carolina A&T Aggies @ Elon Phoenix	N/A	159.5	2.9%	N/A	Loss

3-3.9% 0-0 0.0%

No games in this tier.

4%+ 0-0 0.0%

No games in this tier.

Unders Performance

Edge Tier

Record

Win %

0-0.9% 6-10 37.5%

Date	Matchup	Team	Opening Total	Edge	Closing	Result
2026-01-08	Samford Bulldogs @ Western Carolina Catamounts	N/A	153.5	0.2%	N/A	Loss
2026-01-08	Michigan St Spartans @ Northwestern Wildcats	N/A	144.5	0.1%	142.5	Win
2026-01-09	Georgia St Panthers @ Appalachian St Mountaineers	N/A	139.5	0.4%	N/A	Win
2026-01-09	Central Connecticut St Blue Devils @ Stonehill Skyhawks	N/A	139.5	1.0%	N/A	Loss
2026-01-09	Stetson Hatters @ Lipscomb Bisons	N/A	152.5	0.1%	N/A	Loss
2026-01-09	Gonzaga Bulldogs @ Santa Clara Broncos	N/A	162.5	0.1%	162.5	Win
2026-01-10	Florida Gators @ Tennessee Volunteers	N/A	153.5	0.7%	150.5	Loss
2026-01-10	Coastal Carolina Chanticleers @ Appalachian St Mountaineers	N/A	135.0	0.7%	133.5	Win
2026-01-10	UMBC Retrievers @ New Hampshire Wildcats	N/A	145.5	1.0%	144.5	Loss
2026-01-10	Jacksonville Dolphins @ West Georgia Wolves	N/A	142.5	0.7%	141.5	Win
2026-01-10	Eastern Kentucky Colonels @ Central Arkansas Bears	N/A	156.5	0.7%	156.5	Loss
2026-01-10	Portland St Vikings @ Sacramento St Hornets	N/A	156.5	0.6%	158.75	Loss
2026-01-10	North Carolina Tar Heels @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons	N/A	152.5	0.6%	152.5	Loss
2026-01-11	UMKC Kangaroos @ North Dakota Fighting Hawks	N/A	147.5	0.4%	N/A	Loss
2026-01-11	Kentucky Wildcats @ Mississippi St Bulldogs	N/A	155.5	0.6%	N/A	Win
2026-01-11	Florida Atlantic Owls @ Memphis Tigers	N/A	151.5	0.5%	152.0	Loss

1-1.9% 2-3 40.0%

Date	Matchup	Team	Opening Total	Edge	Closing	Result
2026-01-09	N Colorado Bears @ Idaho State Bengals	N/A	154.5	1.6%	N/A	Loss
2026-01-10	NJIT Highlanders @ Maine Black Bears	N/A	130.0	2.0%	129.5	Loss
2026-01-10	Northeastern Huskies @ Towson Tigers	N/A	144.5	1.6%	142.5	Loss
2026-01-10	Bradley Braves @ Northern Iowa Panthers	N/A	128.5	1.4%	129.5	Win
2026-01-11	N Colorado Bears @ Weber State Wildcats	N/A	164.5	1.4%	N/A	Win

2-2.9% 0-1 0.0%

Date	Matchup	Team	Opening Total	Edge	Closing	Result
2026-01-10	Idaho Vandals @ Montana St Bobcats	N/A	142.5	2.5%	144.0	Loss

3-3.9% 0-0 0.0%

No games in this tier.

4%+ 0-0 0.0%

No games in this tier.

5. Model Over/Under Performance by Edge (Consensus Only) (7 games)

Overs Performance

Edge Tier	Record	Win %
0-0.9% 0-0 0.0% No games in this tier.
1-1.9% 0-0 0.0% No games in this tier.
2-2.9% 0-0 0.0% No games in this tier.
3-3.9% 0-0 0.0% No games in this tier.
4%+ 0-0 0.0% No games in this tier.

Unders Performance

Edge Tier

Record

Win %

0-0.9% 2-2 50.0%

Date	Matchup	Team	Opening Total	Edge	Closing	Result
2026-01-08	Michigan St Spartans @ Northwestern Wildcats	N/A	144.5	0.1%	142.5	Win
2026-01-10	Jacksonville Dolphins @ West Georgia Wolves	N/A	142.5	0.7%	141.5	Win
2026-01-10	Portland St Vikings @ Sacramento St Hornets	N/A	156.5	0.6%	158.75	Loss
2026-01-10	North Carolina Tar Heels @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons	N/A	152.5	0.6%	152.5	Loss

1-1.9% 1-1 50.0%

Date	Matchup	Team	Opening Total	Edge	Closing	Result
2026-01-10	NJIT Highlanders @ Maine Black Bears	N/A	130.0	2.0%	129.5	Loss
2026-01-10	Bradley Braves @ Northern Iowa Panthers	N/A	128.5	1.4%	129.5	Win

2-2.9% 0-1 0.0%

Date	Matchup	Team	Opening Total	Edge	Closing	Result
2026-01-10	Idaho Vandals @ Montana St Bobcats	N/A	142.5	2.5%	144.0	Loss

3-3.9% 0-0 0.0%

No games in this tier.

4%+ 0-0 0.0%

No games in this tier.