Model Performance Analysis Report
Generated: 2025-12-14 12:13:03 UTC
Last Game Included: 2025-12-10
This report shows the model's record against the opening lines for spreads, totals, and moneylines.
1. Model Spread Performance by Edge (All Games)
| Edge Tier |
Record |
Win % |
| 0-1.9% |
33-55 |
37.5% |
| 2-2.9% |
15-13 |
53.6% |
| 3-3.9% |
3-3 |
50.0% |
| 4%+ |
13-12 |
52.0% |
2. Model Spread Performance by Edge (Consensus Only)
| Edge Tier |
Record |
Win % |
| 0-1.9% |
12-26 |
31.6% |
| 2-2.9% |
12-8 |
60.0% |
| 3-3.9% |
1-3 |
25.0% |
| 4%+ |
9-11 |
45.0% |
3. Model Spread Performance by Point Spread Ranges
Favorites (opening_spread < 0)
| Point Spread Range |
Record |
Win % |
| 0-4.5 |
10-21 |
32.3% |
| 5-9.5 |
9-9 |
50.0% |
| 10-14.5 |
8-8 |
50.0% |
| 15-19.5 |
2-3 |
40.0% |
| 20-24.5 |
2-1 |
66.7% |
| 25-29.5 |
1-0 |
100.0% |
| 30+ |
0-0 |
0.0% |
Underdogs (opening_spread > 0)
| Point Spread Range |
Record |
Win % |
| 0-4.5 |
27-47 |
36.5% |
| 5-9.5 |
35-34 |
50.7% |
| 10-14.5 |
12-13 |
48.0% |
| 15-19.5 |
7-6 |
53.8% |
| 20-24.5 |
8-4 |
66.7% |
| 25-29.5 |
8-5 |
61.5% |
| 30+ |
6-12 |
33.3% |
4. Model Over/Under Performance by Edge (All Games)
Overs Performance
| Edge Tier |
Record |
Win % |
| 0-1.9% |
16-6 |
72.7% |
| 2-2.9% |
0-4 |
0.0% |
| 3-3.9% |
0-0 |
0.0% |
| 4%+ |
0-0 |
0.0% |
Unders Performance
| Edge Tier |
Record |
Win % |
| 0-1.9% |
34-14 |
70.8% |
| 2-2.9% |
2-4 |
33.3% |
| 3-3.9% |
2-0 |
100.0% |
| 4%+ |
6-2 |
75.0% |
5. Model Over/Under Performance by Edge (Consensus Only)
Overs Performance
| Edge Tier |
Record |
Win % |
| 0-1.9% |
12-4 |
75.0% |
| 2-2.9% |
0-4 |
0.0% |
| 3-3.9% |
0-0 |
0.0% |
| 4%+ |
0-0 |
0.0% |
Unders Performance
| Edge Tier |
Record |
Win % |
| 0-1.9% |
24-12 |
66.7% |
| 2-2.9% |
2-2 |
50.0% |
| 3-3.9% |
2-0 |
100.0% |
| 4%+ |
4-2 |
66.7% |
6. Overall Model Totals Record
Overs (over_cover_probability > 0.5):
120-126 (48.8%)
Unders (under_cover_probability > 0.5):
214-140 (60.5%)
7. Moneyline Performance by Win Probability (All Games)
| Win Probability Tier |
Record |
Win % |
| 10-19% |
5-47 |
9.6% |
| 20-29% |
16-52 |
23.5% |
| 30-39% |
27-59 |
31.4% |
| 40-49% |
29-53 |
35.4% |
| 50-59% |
57-27 |
67.9% |
| 60-69% |
59-33 |
64.1% |
| 70-79% |
54-15 |
78.3% |
| 80-89% |
45-4 |
91.8% |
| 90%+ |
60-2 |
96.8% |
8. Moneyline Performance by Win Probability (Consensus Only)
| Win Probability Tier |
Record |
Win % |
| 10-19% |
2-20 |
9.1% |
| 20-29% |
6-27 |
18.2% |
| 30-39% |
12-24 |
33.3% |
| 40-49% |
17-29 |
37.0% |
| 50-59% |
31-15 |
67.4% |
| 60-69% |
25-15 |
62.5% |
| 70-79% |
29-7 |
80.6% |
| 80-89% |
18-1 |
94.7% |
| 90%+ |
24-1 |
96.0% |
9. Moneyline Performance by Win Probability (4%+ Edge)
| Win Probability Tier |
Record |
Win % |
| 10-19% |
0-0 |
0.0% |
| 20-29% |
0-2 |
0.0% |
| 30-39% |
0-1 |
0.0% |
| 40-49% |
0-1 |
0.0% |
| 50-59% |
2-2 |
50.0% |
| 60-69% |
1-0 |
100.0% |
| 70-79% |
0-0 |
0.0% |
| 80-89% |
0-0 |
0.0% |
| 90%+ |
0-0 |
0.0% |
10. Moneyline Performance by Win Probability (4%+ Edge, Consensus Only)
| Win Probability Tier |
Record |
Win % |
| 10-19% |
0-0 |
0.0% |
| 20-29% |
0-2 |
0.0% |
| 30-39% |
0-1 |
0.0% |
| 40-49% |
0-1 |
0.0% |
| 50-59% |
2-2 |
50.0% |
| 60-69% |
1-0 |
100.0% |
| 70-79% |
0-0 |
0.0% |
| 80-89% |
0-0 |
0.0% |
| 90%+ |
0-0 |
0.0% |